Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 16?

Resolves at station RJTT·2026-08-16·Asia/Tokyo·Polymarket

Live · last refresh 6:00 PM

Consensus outcome

27°C

3 of 11 models

Model spread

26°C – 30°C

Across market outcome buckets

Latest observed

24.0°C

Aug 16, 1:30 AM

Observed max

24.0°C

On 2026-08-16

7d hit

30%

MAE 0.83° · 10 model-days

Bid scan

Live

Live order book edge for the next two target dates.

Past 7 days

—0/0 wins

Aug 9—

Aug 10—

Aug 11—

Aug 12—

Aug 13—

Aug 14—

Aug 15—

Net P&L (7d)

—

History is tracked locally per browser. Run a bid scan to start populating the strip; wins are resolved automatically once observed maxes for past target dates land.

No bid scan has run for this city yet.

Forecast vs observations

Hourly temperature per model, overlaid on observed readings · Target 2026-08-16 · Asia/Tokyo

Latest runs

Most recent forecast per model, ranked by predicted max. Accuracy windows are configurable.

Window


ukmo_seamless open_meteo · 8/15/26, 6:00 PM	29.80°C	30°C	0.10°1 day	100%1 day
wu_pws wunderground · 8/15/26, 6:00 PM	29.00°C	29°C	—	—
icon_seamless open_meteo · 8/15/26, 6:00 PM	28.60°C	29°C	0.50°1 day	100%1 day
cma_grapes_global open_meteo · 8/15/26, 12:00 PM	28.60°C	29°C	0.30°1 day	100%1 day
gfs_seamless open_meteo · 8/15/26, 6:00 PM	28.40°C	28°C	1.50°1 day	0%1 day
metno_seamless open_meteo · 8/15/26, 6:00 PM	28.30°C	28°C	0.60°1 day	0%1 day
gem_seamless open_meteo · 8/15/26, 6:00 PM	27.50°C	28°C	1.30°1 day	0%1 day
meteofrance_seamless open_meteo · 8/15/26, 6:00 PM	27.10°C	27°C	2.20°1 day	0%1 day
best_match open_meteo · 8/15/26, 6:00 PM	26.60°C	27°C	0.60°1 day	0%1 day
jma_seamless open_meteo · 8/15/26, 6:00 PM	26.60°C	27°C	0.60°1 day	0%1 day
ecmwf_ifs025 open_meteo · 8/15/26, 6:00 PM	26.00°C	26°C	0.60°1 day	0%1 day

Sources

Provider credentials and last successful ingestion. Stale after 90m. Refresh runs hourly via cron.

Provider	Credentials	Last fetch	Status
AccuWeather	pending	—	never
Google Weather	pending	—	never
MetService	public	8/15/26, 6:00 PM	ok
Open-Meteo	public