Highest temperature in Tokyo on October 16?

Resolves at station RJTT·2026-10-16·Asia/Tokyo·Polymarket

Live · last refresh 12:01 AM

Consensus outcome

25°C

4 of 11 models

Model spread

22°C – 26°C

Across market outcome buckets

Latest observed

20.0°C

Oct 16, 8:00 AM

Observed max

20.0°C

On 2026-10-16

7d hit

34%

MAE 1.10° · 77 model-days

Bid scan

Live

Live order book edge for the next two target dates.

Past 7 days

—0/0 wins

Oct 10—

Oct 11—

Oct 12—

Oct 13—

Oct 14—

Oct 15—

Oct 16—

Net P&L (7d)

—

History is tracked locally per browser. Run a bid scan to start populating the strip; wins are resolved automatically once observed maxes for past target dates land.

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Forecast vs observations

Hourly temperature per model, overlaid on observed readings · Target 2026-10-16 · Asia/Tokyo

Latest runs

Most recent forecast per model, ranked by predicted max. Accuracy windows are configurable. Open-Meteo keeps hourly data for the top three models by 7-day accuracy; other models receive daily highs and lows.

Window


best_match Hourly open_meteo · 10/15/26, 12:01 PM	25.90°C Low 15.60°C	26°C	0.63°7 days	57%7 days
jma_seamless Hourly open_meteo · 10/15/26, 12:01 PM	25.90°C Low 15.60°C	26°C	0.63°7 days	57%7 days
icon_seamless Daily open_meteo · 10/15/26, 12:01 PM	25.60°C Low 16.80°C	26°C	1.00°7 days	29%7 days
metno_seamless Daily open_meteo · 10/15/26, 12:01 PM	25.20°C Low 16.20°C	25°C	1.03°7 days	57%7 days
wu_pws wunderground · 10/16/26, 12:01 AM	25.00°C	25°C	1.14°7 days	14%7 days
ecmwf_ifs025 Daily open_meteo · 10/15/26, 12:01 PM	25.00°C Low 16.00°C	25°C	0.84°7 days	57%7 days
gfs_seamless Daily open_meteo · 10/15/26, 12:01 PM	24.90°C Low 19.60°C	25°C	1.83°7 days	14%7 days
gem_seamless Daily open_meteo · 10/15/26, 12:01 PM	24.30°C Low 16.00°C	24°C	1.77°7 days	0%7 days
meteofrance_seamless Hourly open_meteo · 10/15/26, 12:01 PM	23.60°C Low 17.10°C	24°C	0.63°7 days	43%7 days
ukmo_seamless Daily open_meteo · 10/15/26, 12:01 PM	23.60°C Low 17.30°C	24°C	1.20°7 days	14%7 days
cma_grapes_global Daily open_meteo · 10/15/26, 12:01 PM	22.30°C Low 14.70°C	22°C	1.41°7 days	29%7 days

Sources

Provider credentials and last successful ingestion. Stale after 90m. Refresh runs hourly via cron.

Provider	Credentials	Last fetch	Status
AccuWeather	pending	—	never
Google Weather	pending	—	never
MetService	public	10/16/26, 12:01 AM	stale
Open-Meteo	public