Highest temperature in Wellington on October 16?

Resolves at station NZWN·2026-10-16·Pacific/Auckland·Polymarket

Live · last refresh 12:01 AM

Consensus outcome

10°C

7 of 12 models

Model spread

10°C – 11°C

Across market outcome buckets

Latest observed

10.0°C

Oct 16, 12:00 PM

Observed max

10.0°C

On 2026-10-16

7d hit

32%

MAE 1.14° · 84 model-days

Bid scan

Live

Live order book edge for the next two target dates.

Past 7 days

—0/0 wins

Oct 10—

Oct 11—

Oct 12—

Oct 13—

Oct 14—

Oct 15—

Oct 16—

Net P&L (7d)

—

History is tracked locally per browser. Run a bid scan to start populating the strip; wins are resolved automatically once observed maxes for past target dates land.

No bid scan has run for this city yet.

Forecast vs observations

Hourly temperature per model, overlaid on observed readings · Target 2026-10-16 · Pacific/Auckland

Latest runs

Most recent forecast per model, ranked by predicted max. Accuracy windows are configurable. Open-Meteo keeps hourly data for the top three models by 7-day accuracy; other models receive daily highs and lows.

Window


wu_pws wunderground · 10/16/26, 12:01 AM	11.00°C	11°C	1.00°7 days	43%7 days
cma_grapes_global Daily open_meteo · 10/16/26, 12:01 AM	10.80°C Low 9.40°C	11°C	0.93°7 days	29%7 days
jma_seamless Daily open_meteo · 10/16/26, 12:01 AM	10.60°C Low 9.50°C	11°C	2.34°7 days	14%7 days
icon_seamless Hourly open_meteo · 10/16/26, 12:01 AM	10.50°C Low 8.40°C	11°C	0.83°7 days	43%7 days
meteofrance_seamless Daily open_meteo · 10/16/26, 12:01 AM	10.50°C Low 8.50°C	11°C	1.66°7 days	0%7 days
gfs_seamless Daily open_meteo · 10/16/26, 12:01 AM	10.20°C Low 8.10°C	10°C	1.50°7 days	14%7 days
ecmwf_ifs025 Daily open_meteo · 10/16/26, 12:01 AM	10.10°C Low 8.00°C	10°C	1.31°7 days	29%7 days
best_match Daily open_meteo · 10/16/26, 12:01 AM	10.00°C Low 8.00°C	10°C	0.99°7 days	43%7 days
metno_seamless Daily open_meteo · 10/16/26, 12:01 AM	10.00°C Low 8.00°C	10°C	0.99°7 days	43%7 days
hourly metservice · 10/16/26, 12:01 AM	10.00°C	10°C	0.71°7 days	43%7 days
gem_seamless Hourly open_meteo · 10/16/26, 12:01 AM	9.70°C Low 7.70°C	10°C	0.70°7 days	29%7 days
ukmo_seamless Hourly open_meteo · 10/16/26, 12:01 AM	9.70°C Low 7.70°C	10°C	0.67°7 days	57%7 days

Sources

Provider credentials and last successful ingestion. Stale after 90m. Refresh runs hourly via cron.

Provider	Credentials	Last fetch	Status
AccuWeather	pending	—	never
Google Weather	pending	—	never
MetService	public	10/16/26, 12:01 AM	stale
Open-Meteo	public